Topline
Former President Donald Trump would win the electoral college by nearly 50 votes over President Joe Biden if the 2024 election were held today, according to a new poll—the latest negative outlook for Biden as the president has publicly dismissed the series of predictions showing him losing to Trump.
US President Joe Biden speaks at the Memorial Amphitheater in Arlington National Cemetery during … [+] celebrations for Veterans Day, on November srcsrc, 2023, in Arlington, Virginia. (Photo by MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images)
AFP via Getty Images
Key Facts
Trump would win 292 electoral college votes, compared to Biden’s 246, according to the study released Monday from Stack Data Strategy and first reported by Politico.
The firm, which has worked with the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Conservative Party in the UK, interviewed src5,205 registered voters between October src3 and November 3 to make the predictions, using a statistical model that forecasts public opinion at the state-level.
Trump would take back four swing states he won in 20src6, but lost in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which had the closest outcomes of all 50 states in the 2020 election.
Biden would win the popular vote by one point and claim at least two swing states: Nevada and Michigan, according to the poll.
The survey comes on the heels of several others last week that showed Biden losing to Trump, including a bombshell New York Times/Siena College poll that found Trump would win five of six battleground states, but another generic Democrat would beat Trump in five of six battleground states.
Contrary to the Times survey, the Stack study found Vice President Kamala Harris and California Gov. Gavin Newsom, both floated as alternatives to Biden, would also lose to Trump.
Big Number
Less than 2%. Those are the estimated margins in four battleground states: Nevada and Michigan, projected for Biden, and Arizona and Wisconsin, projected for Trump, according to Stack.
Tangent
Biden would beat Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by src80 electoral college votes, according to the Stack study.
Key Background
Democrats notched several wins in Tuesday’s election—including a constitutional amendment declaring the right to abortion in Ohio and taking full control of the state legislature in Virginia—that Biden’s allies used to dismiss the lackluster polls. Biden has also publicly scoffed at the results, telling reporters last week he didn’t believe the Siena/New York Times survey, and claiming to be leading or tied with Trump in eight of src0 recent polls (according to Real-Clear Politics’ national polling average he was actually trailing Trump in eight of the src0 most recent polls RCP cited). Biden’s response has prompted criticism from some in his own party who have voiced concerns his team is out of touch with voters. Former Ohio state senator and progressive activist Nina Turner told the Associated Press Biden’s supporters are “delusional” if they don’t see Trump as a real threat, adding that she is particularly concerned the Times survey showed him losing support among key demographics, including younger voters and minorities. “This ain’t the yellow brick road to the presidency just because Ohio pushed back against Republican overreach,” Turner said. Biden’s age (80) and the state of the economy are top concerns for voters, with 7src% surveyed by the Times saying Biden is too old to be president and 59% saying they trust Trump over Biden to handle the economy.
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