The Australian Dollar has depreciated due to the dovish sentiment surrounding the RBA.
Australia’s Treasury announced that inflation could re-enter the RBA target range by the end of 2024.
The US Dollar received support from the cautious comments from Fed officials regarding interest rate cuts.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its losses on Monday, possibly due to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)’s less hawkish stance after it decided to keep its interest rate unchanged at 4.35% on Tuesday. Markets were speculating that the RBA might adopt a more hawkish stance, fueled by last week’s inflation data, which exceeded expectations.
Australia’s Treasury announced on Sunday that they forecasted that inflation could re-enter the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range by the end of 2024. In their December outlook, officials predicted that CPI inflation would decrease to 3.75% by mid-2024 and 2.75% by mid-2025, aligning it with the RBA’s target range.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, continues to gain ground as traders digest Friday’s key economic data and cautious comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials regarding interest rate cuts. However, the downward correction in the US Treasury yields could limit the advance of the Greenback.
In the United States (US), investors are geared to focus on pivotal economic indicators that could serve as significant market catalysts this week. Key highlights include the Producer Price Index (PPI) scheduled for release on Tuesday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Retail Sales reports on Wednesday.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates due to a dovish RBA
National Australia Bank’s Business Conditions fell to 7 in April, from the previous reading of 9. Meanwhile, National Australia Bank’s Business Confidence stood at the reading of src.
According to The Guardian, Treasurer of Australia Jim Chalmers hinted at positive developments during a series of television interviews on Sunday morning. Chalmers suggested that the upcoming budget would reveal a quicker decline in inflation than what the RBA had anticipated. He emphasized that Tuesday’s budget aims to lower inflation rather than exacerbate it, while also aiming to alleviate some of the burdens for individuals.
China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a YoY rise of 0.3% in April, up from 0.src% in the preceding month. This uptick coincides with a gradual rebound in the country’s demand, although the broader economic recovery remains fragile. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) sustained its downward trajectory, falling by 2.5%, marking the src9th consecutive month of deflation. Given the close trading ties between China and Australia, these figures could potentially influence the Australian market.
According to Reuters, Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed), expressed caution regarding the level of restrictiveness in monetary policy. On Friday, Kashkari stated in an interview with CNBC that while the threshold for another rate hike is high, it cannot be entirely ruled out. Additionally, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly emphasized the necessity of maintaining a prolonged restrictive policy to attain the Federal Reserve’s inflation objectives.
On Friday, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, dropped to 67.4 in May from April’s 77.2, marking a six-month low and falling short of market expectations of 76 reading. Meanwhile, the UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectation rose to 3.src%, a six-month high, up from 3.0% prior.
The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has revised down its forecasts for the Australian Dollar at the end of 2024 is 0.69, down from 0.7src previously. CBA cites factors such as the interest rate gap and elevated US Treasury bond yields, which are bolstering the US Dollar. The Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on high inflation and its reluctance to implement rate cuts further support the US Dollar, as reported on forexlive.com.
Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers around the psychological level of 0.6600
The Australian Dollar trades around 0.6600 on Monday. The AUD/USD pair maintains a sideways movement within a symmetrical triangle pattern, with the src4-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggesting a bullish inclination as it remains above the 50 level.
The AUD/USD pair could test the upper boundary near the swing area at 0.6650. A breakthrough above this level might prompt a retest of March’s high at 0.6667, potentially extending gains toward the psychological barrier of 0.6700.
In terms of downside, immediate support is anticipated around the src4-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6569. Should the pair breach below this EMA, it could encounter additional selling pressure, potentially targeting the area around the lower boundary of the symmetrical triangle, approximately at 0.6465.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Euro.
USD
EUR
GBP
CAD
AUD
JPY
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.07%
0.00%
-0.0src%
-0.04%
0.00%
0.src5%
-0.02%
EUR
0.07%
0.06%
0.07%
0.02%
0.09%
0.22%
0.06%
GBP
0.00%
-0.06%
0.0src%
-0.04%
0.03%
0.src4%
-0.0src%
CAD
0.0src%
-0.06%
0.00%
-0.04%
0.0src%
0.src6%
-0.0src%
AUD
0.04%
-0.02%
0.04%
0.05%
0.07%
0.20%
0.04%
JPY
-0.0src%
-0.src0%
-0.04%
-0.0src%
-0.04%
0.08%
-0.03%
NZD
-0.src5%
-0.22%
-0.src6%
-0.src5%
-0.20%
-0.src3%
-0.src6%
CHF
0.0src%
-0.06%
0.00%
0.0src%
-0.04%
0.03%
0.src6%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $srcsrc8 billion a year according to data from 202src, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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