Previewing the FOMC’s December policy meeting, Rabobank analysts said they expect the US central bank to hike the policy rate by 50 basis points and see policymakers revising the terminal rate projection to the neighbourhood of 5%.
Dot plot to show disagreement about terminal rate
“We expect that Powell will continue to push back against rate cuts in 2023, repeating that restoring price stability will require holding policy at a restrictive level for some time and that history cautions strongly against prematurely loosening policy.”
“Meanwhile, obscured by Powell’s hawkish consensus view, the dot plot is likely to show considerable disagreement about the terminal rate. This could become more prominent in 2023 when the subset of voters becomes more dovish.”
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