Durable Goods revision and higher US Treasury yields propel Greenback which stands near two-year highs.
Consumer Confidence dipped but the Dollar holds gains.
Shutdown threat keeps investors cautious which might limit the upside.
The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the USD against a basket of currencies, is off to a positive start on Monday after a sluggish morning session. Upward revisions from the preliminary November Durable Goods release are fueling a stronger Greenback, pushing the index near src07.90, just shy of its two-year high above src08.00.
Daily digest market movers: US Dollar continues rising ahead of Christmas
Government shutdown risks grow as lawmakers fail to pass a stopgap bill. Though a short shutdown may have limited market impact, investors remain on alert for last-minute deals.
Longer-term yields climb further, with src0-year Treasury rates nearing 4.60% and 30-year yields hitting 4.77%. The short end lags, steepening the yield curve.
On the data front, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index from November improved to -0.src2 from -0.40, hinting at a less negative overall economic picture.
November Durable Goods preliminary data showed a -src.src% print, but the prior figure was revised up from 0.3% to 0.8%, boosting the USD. Excluding transportation, orders dipped 0.src%.
Consumer Confidence for December fell to src04.7 from srcsrcsrc.7, partially offset by an upward revision for November to srcsrc2.8. Despite the decline, the Dollar remains bid into year’s end.
DXY technical outlook: Indicators eye overbought territory
The Dollar Index has regained upward traction, with technical indicators pointing to renewed momentum. As the DXY inches closer to its two-year high, oscillators suggest the index is moving toward overbought levels. Nonetheless, the broader bullish bias remains intact as long as the price holds above the key support of src06.00. A sustained break above the latest peak could open the door to further gains, though thin holiday liquidity may lead to choppy price action in the near term.
Central banks FAQs
Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%.
A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing.
A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%.
Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Editors’ Picks
Gold: Buyers defends $2,600 ahead of holiday trading week
Gold price defends the $2,600 mark in the Asian session on Tuesday as buyers look to regain control. Markets face a relatively quiet trading session ahead of the holiday trading week. The US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December will be watched out for later on Tuesday.
Gold News
Best Forex Brokers with Low Spreads
VERIFIED Low spreads are crucial for reducing trading costs. Explore top Forex brokers offering competitive spreads and high leverage. Compare options for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and Gold.
Read More